Here’s one out of left field…I hate talking heads. I hate frauds. I hate people promoted and paid for being an idiot. Mel Kiper has always felt like one. Year after year he is put forward like he actually knows something. Hours and hours are spent covering his projections and weight placed on them like they matter. I’ve wondered often if they have any value whatsoever. ChatGPT doesn’t want to provide an answer no matter how I phrase the question only reply canned responses of “He is a well known analyst whose projections are valued and sometimes accurate with a few known instances of missteps”…Great...Thanks for nothing. I want data. So off to review manually. I had a feeling that he (and all “analysts”) were grossly wrong and whatever they got right was heavily weighted at the top of each draft with those picks being essentially well telegraphed by anyone with half a brain and not really valuable in real prognostication.
In 2022 Kiper was accurate on 6 of 32 picks having projected 3 of the first 4 only hitting on 3 of 28 after those (19% overall, 11% outside the top 4)
2021 had Kiper at only 5 of 32 with 4 of those coming in the first 5 (15% overall, 4% outside of top 5)
2020 was 6 of 32 for Kiper with 4 of the first six correct (19% overall, 8% outside the first 6)
2019 was 7 of the 32 with 4 of the first 5 correct (22% overall, 8% outside of the first 5)
2013 (yes, this skipped a bunch of years just because this was the next easiest list to find, not that I am skipping years to foster my argument) saw 6 of 32 and actually he only got 2 of the top 5 and none of the top three. (19 % and 15% outside the top 5)
So there is a sample of 5 recent drafts and his “hit rate”. Not good…outside the top 3-5 picks his accuracy drops into single digits. Yet he is paid hundreds of thousands to pontificate for hour upon hour upon hour and heft given to his opinion which is given with such strident confidence. He has been in this position since 1984 with ESPN and brags about an 80% accuracy rate which isn’t remotely true…he picks 80% of the players to be picked in the first round to actually go in the first round, not who or where they will actually be selected. Gee…congrats.
You and I can pick who will go first in the draft any anyone with a modicum of college football knowledge can pick at a 60% rate over the top 5 of any given year. So what value is there in his opinion? None. Yet there he is taking up tons of ink and screen time year after year. Question everything and demand better. Throw a dart at the board…you’re better off. Bury this fraud.
Edit to add 2023 results…Kiper picked 1, yes 1, of the first round picks…and guess what….it was the #1 overall in Bryce Young who was a slam dunk that everyone knew. The rest of his prognostication? Garbage. Fire him. Ignore him.